Let’s start out by looking at the difference in math if you do not have Upstart Goblin in your deck. This section is just the text version of these charts. If you’re good with charts, I highly recommend you skip reading this section just look at the charts below.
Let’s take a couple minutes to see how the math changes when going first and only starting with five cards instead of six. I’ve also had time to think about the change in a more general sense to see if it makes a difference depending on what you’re playing and what the opponent is playing. It’s a good thing I decided to wait before writing about this, because my opinion has taken a pretty dramatic turn in the opposite direction. If I chose to go first instead, then I could fill my graveyard with Sylvans before they could use Fissure or Macro and have a later Fertilizer or Soul Charge still be alive.
If I choose to go second, I would be giving my opponent a chance to open a card like Dimensional Fissure or Macro Cosmos to prevent me from setting up my graveyard. I decided that this idea that you should always go second would change in games two and three because of floodgates. It seemed like the benefits of going second greatly outweighed going first. Simultaneously, I’m decreasing their chances of opening a card like Murmillo or Sanctum. If I instead choose to go second, my chances of opening one of those eight cards increases to 79.57% or roughly 4/5 games. It’d be extremely difficult to win any of the roughly ¼ games I didn’t get at least one of these if my opponent had something as simple as a Traptrix Murmillo or Artifact Sanctum for a +1 on top of the +1 that they have for going second. If I was playing three Charity, three Kuribandit, and two Lonefire, then I had a 72.76% chance of opening at least one of them leaving 27.24% that I wouldn’t have any of them. There are a couple other combinations of cards like Mount Sylvania, Sylvan Hermitree, and Miracle Fertilizer, but to keep it simple we’ll just keep it to the first three cards. I decided that I only wanted to go first if my opening hand had Sylvan Charity, Kuribandit, or Lonefire Blossom in it.
MACRO COSMOS HONEST SERIES
I played the Circuit Series Championship under the impression that it was better to choose to go second if you won the die roll. Now that we’ve had a couple of major events with this draw rule in effect and several weeks to playtest, I’m ready to share my thoughts on how the draw rule will impact the game. Rather than give my first reaction to how this rule change would impact the game, I decided to wait a couple of weeks so that I can fully develop my opinion. Hello everybody! The new draw rule took effect at the same time as the Forbidden and Limited list.
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